As a result
of the year-long Tropospheric Airborne Data Report (TAMDAR) Great Lakes
Fleet
Experiment (GLFE) which ended in January 2006, real-time sounding data
from
commuter aircraft flying to smaller regional airports in the Great
Lakes and
The forecast
utility of regional TAMDAR aircraft sounding data in assessing
short-term (0-12
hour) convective potential was evaluated in an operational NWS forecast
setting.
Two types of
scenarios were examined: 1)
Subtle, marginally severe events in which severe weather occurred, but was not anticipated; and
2) Null events in
which severe weather was anticipated but did not materialize. Several brief case studies
will be presented
to illustrate how the higher spatial and temporal resolution soundings
(supplemented with other observational and model forecast datasets)
allowed forecasters
to more effectively monitor changes in important convective parameters
such as low-level
convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition
(CIN) and low-level
wind shear.
The increased
temporal and spatial resolution regional aircraft soundings
demonstrated
significant promise in helping to improve assessment of short-term
convective
potential, particularly in the reduction of false alarms.
Eugene S. Brusky and Phil Kurimski
National Weather Service, Green Bay, WI